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On the other hand, futures trading now dials in nearly zero chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s meeting October 31–November 1 and falling chances of a December hike. Treasury mounting worries that inflation and high interest rates could last well into 2024 and the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) policy. The recent spike in benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields reflects multiple factors: increased supply from the U.S.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is down slightly at $89.49 per barrel.Cboe Volatility Index ® (VIX) futures added to recent gains and trade at 21.66.The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) slipped 2 basis points to 4.96%.There’s no guarantee any of that will happen. The market lacks positive catalysts–such as progress toward a resolution of the Middle East conflict, traction on Capitol Hill before a possible government shutdown, or spirited earnings results and guidance from major info tech firms next week. The Cboe Volatility index® (VIX) climbed above 21 for the first time since early May, suggesting the SPX could experience sharper moves. The weakness runs against seasonal trends, as October’s been positive for stocks in six of the last nine years, including the last two.Īs stocks fell, volatility popped. The SPX is now on pace for a lower week and for the first three-month downturn since January–March 2020. Yesterday’s steep losses tipped the S&P 500® Index (SPX) into negative territory for the month. crude oil moved back above $90 per barrel yesterday, a two-week high. Geopolitics also are rattling Wall Street ahead of the opening bell as the Middle East conflict extended to attacks against American targets in the region. Treasury note briefly topped 5% for the first time since July 2007, though they dropped before Friday’s open. Late yesterday, yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Another inflation warning from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell yesterday and an earnings deluge dialed up caution on Wall Street as stocks edged lower again in premarket trading Friday. (Friday market open) A wall of worry looms, and investors haven’t shown much appetite to climb it the last two days.

Swing high swing low indicator for thinkorswim